Field effectiveness evaluation of advanced driver assistance systems

Abstract

Objective: Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are a class of vehicle technologies designed to increase safety by providing drivers with timely warnings and autonomously intervening to avoid hazardous situations. Though laboratory testing suggests that ADAS technologies will greatly impact crash involvement rates, real-world evidence that characterizes their effectiveness is still limited. This study evaluates and quantifies the association of ADAS technologies with the likelihood of a moderate or severe crash for new-model BMWs in the United States.

Methods: Vehicle ADAS option information for the cohort of model year 2014 and later BMW passenger vehicles sold after January 1, 2014 (n?=?1,063,503), was coded using VIN-identified options data. ADAS technologies of interest include frontal collision warning with autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning, and blind spot detection. BMW Automated Crash Notification system data (from January 2014 to November 2017) were merged with vehicle data by VIN to identify crashed vehicles (n?=?15,507), including date, crash severity (delta V), and area of impact. Using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling, the study calculates the adjusted hazard ratio for crashing among BMW passenger vehicles with versus without ADAS technologies. The adjusted percentage reduction in moderate and severe crashes associated with ADAS is interpreted as one minus the hazard ratio.

Results: Vehicles equipped with both autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning were 23% less likely to crash than those not equipped (hazard ratio [HR]?=?0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73–0.81), controlling for model year, vehicle size and body type. Autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning generally occur together, making it difficult to tease apart their individual effects. Blind spot detection was associated with a 14% reduction in crashes after controlling for the presence of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning (HR =0.86; 95% CI, 0.744–0.99). Differences were observed by vehicle type and crash type. The combined effect of autonomous emergency braking and lane departure warning was greater in newer model vehicles: Equipped vehicles were 13% less likely to crash (HR =0.87; 95% CI, 0.79–0.95) among 2014 model year vehicles versus 34% less likely to crash (HR =0.66; 95% CI, 0.57–0.77) among 2017 model year vehicles.

Conclusion: This robust cohort study contributes to the growing evidence on the effectiveness of ADAS technologies.     

Taming the Climate? Corpus analysis of politicians’ speech on climate change

The politics of climate change is much discussed, but there has been little investigation into how politicians themselves understand or articulate the issue. Corpus analysis, a method developed within linguistics, is used to investigate how UK politicians talk about climate change, using the example of the 2008 Climate Change Bill. Corpus techniques, including keyword analysis, collocation and semantic tagging, are used, alongside critical reading of the text. The analysis shows that politicians frame climate change as an economic and technical issue, and neglect discussion of the human and social dimensions. They are selective in their use of scientific evidence, with little mention of abrupt or irreversible change. In doing so, they attempt to ‘tame’ climate change, rather than confronting difficult realities. While this strategy has the benefit of political acceptability, it does not allow for discussion of the full political and social implications of climate change, and precludes more radical responses.     

Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.     

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West,USA: Countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.     

A framework for analyzing climate change adaptations as actions

Developing generalized theories about adaptation to climate change requires common concepts to map different adaptation situations. The paper aims to contribute to this endeavor by presenting a novel framework that conceptualizes adaptations to climate change as actions. The framework is intended to systematically analyze the actor relations involved in adaptations and the barriers to their implementation. By combining established scientific action theories with terminology from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in an innovative way, it can be used to clarify the notion of adaptation used in adaptation assessments. The framework’s potential is illustrated by a case study on cooling water management in the river Rhine catchment and by the elucidation of some prominent concepts in adaptation research. We show that by framing adaptations as actions, the purpose of adaptations and how they tend to connect up in means-ends-chains becomes crucial. Actors can take different functional roles as exposure unit, operator and receptor of adaptation. A mismatch of these roles can lead to barriers to adaptation, of which we deduce four types: complex actor relations, missing operators, missing means and unemployed means. The case study yields a complex bundle of adaptations, and shows that the potential barriers involved are quite diverse. There is thus no blueprint solution. Although we identify entry points for adaptation, the analysis leads to a skeptical conclusion for adapting cooling water management in the whole Rhine catchment.     

Mixed-Grass Prairie Canopy Structure and Spectral Reflectance Vary with Topographic Position

Managers of the nearly 0.5 million ha of public lands in North and South Dakota, USA rely heavily on manual measurements of canopy height in autumn to ensure conservation of grassland structure for wildlife and forage for livestock. However, more comprehensive assessment of vegetation structure could be achieved for mixed-grass prairie by integrating field survey, topographic position (summit, mid and toeslope) and spectral reflectance data. Thus, we examined the variation of mixed-grass prairie structural attributes (canopy leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content) and spectral vegetation indices (VIs) with variation in topographic position at the Grand River National Grassland (GRNG), South Dakota. We conducted the study on a 36,000-ha herbaceous area within the GRNG, where randomly selected plots (1?km² in size) were geolocated and included summit, mid and toeslope positions. We tested for effects of topographic position on measured vegetation attributes and VIs calculated from Landsat TM and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data collected in July 2010. Leaf area, standing crop mass, canopy height, nitrogen, and water content were lower at summits than at toeslopes. The simple ratio of Landsat Band 7/Band 1 (SR71) was the VI most highly correlated with canopy standing crop and height at plot and landscape scales. Results suggest field and remote sensing-based grassland assessment techniques could more comprehensively target low structure areas at minimal expense by layering modeled imagery over a landscape stratified into topographic position groups.     

Measuring the effectiveness of landscape approaches to conservation and development

Landscape approaches attempt to achieve balance amongst multiple goals over long time periods and to adapt to changing conditions. We review project reports and the literature on integrated landscape approaches, and found a lack of documented studies of their long-term effectiveness. The combination of multiple and potentially changing goals presents problems for the conventional measures of impact. We propose more critical use of theories of change and measures of process and progress to complement the conventional impact assessments. Theories of change make the links between project deliverables, outputs, outcomes, and impacts explicit, and allow a full exploration of the landscape context. Landscape approaches are long-term engagements, but short-term process metrics are needed to confirm that progress is being made in negotiation of goals, meaningful stakeholder engagement, existence of connections to policy processes, and effectiveness of governance. Long-term impact metrics are needed to assess progress on achieving landscapes that deliver multiple societal benefits, including conservation, production, and livelihood benefits. Generic criteria for process are proposed, but impact metrics will be highly situation specific and must be derived from an effective process and a credible theory of change.     

Gold Mining: Is It Worth Its Weight?

Gold (Au) accounts for only 0.004 g/ton of the earth's crust and is the most desired element. With an average annual world production of approximately 2,500 tons, the current methods of Au mining in developing countries cause major environmental issues. These issues vary from deforestation to cyanide and mercury (Hg) contamination. This article presents several cases of environmental catastrophes caused by Au mining in different regions of the world (Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South America). It discusses the currently available processes for the large-scale extraction of metallic Au grains and supports the need for an alternative sustainable process.     

Growth dynamics of Chinese wingnut (Pterocarya stenoptera) seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties under simulated water change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River

Pterocarya stenoptera is a native deciduous tree species and a candidate for reforestation in the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River in China. Water treatments of continuous flooding (CF) and periodic flooding–drought (PF) were applied to examine the growth dynamics of 4-month-old P. stenoptera seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties. Results showed that P. stenoptera seedlings in both CF and PF significantly decreased leaf biomass accumulation and the height and diameter growth as compared to that in control (CK; treatment with well-watered, well-drained soil), respectively. There was no significant difference in stem biomass among the three groups, but root biomass in PF showed severe reduction compared to that in both CK and CF. Total biomass in PF was significantly decreased compared to that in CK, but comparable to that in CF. Furthermore, no significant difference was found between CF and CK in total biomass. Water treatments in the unplanted soil pots significantly influenced soil pH, soil organic matter (OM), total nitrogen (TN), and alkali hydrolysable nitrogen (AN) contents, in contrast to no significant effects in total phosphorus (TP), total potassium (TK), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK) contents. In P. stenoptera soils, there were significant effects by water treatment, time, and treatment × time in the eight tested soil chemical properties, except treatment in TK and time effect in OM content. Compared to unplanted soils, the growth of P. stenoptera seedlings significantly increased soil pH value and OM, TN, TP, and TK contents, while decreasing AN, AP, and AK contents in CK group, augmented the mean value of each of the tested soil chemical properties with an exception of AK content in CF group, and increased soil pH value and TN, AN, TP, and AP contents with no significant differences in OM, TK, and AK contents in PF group. Given the fact that TN and TP contents significantly increased in P. stenoptera soils as compared to those in unplanted soils, growth of P. stenoptera seedlings should be a successful candidate for restoration within the highly dynamic hydrologic zone of the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.     

Investigating the chemical nature of humic-like substances (HULIS) in North American atmospheric aerosols by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry

The high-molecular weight water-soluble organic compounds present in atmospheric aerosols underwent functional-group characterization using liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), with a focus on understanding the chemical structure and origins of humic-like substances (HULIS) in the atmosphere. Aerosol samples were obtained from several locations in North America at times when primary sources contributing to organic aerosol were well-characterized: Riverside, CA, Fresno, CA, urban and peripheral Mexico City, Atlanta, GA, and Bondville, IL. Chemical analysis targeted identification and quantification of functional groups, such as aliphatic, aromatic, and bulk carboxylic acids, organosulfates, and carbohydrate-like substances that comprise species with molecular weights (MW) 200–600 amu. Measured high-MW functional groups were compared to modeled primary sources with the purpose of identifying associations between aerosol sources, high-MW aerosol species, and HULIS. Mobile source emissions were linked to high-molecular weight carboxylic acids, especially aromatic acids, biomass burning was associated with carboxylic acids and carbohydrate-like substances, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) correlated well with the total amount of HULIS measured, whereas organosulfates showed no correlation with aerosol sources and exhibited unique spatial trends. These results suggested the importance of motor vehicles, biomass burning, and SOA as important sources of precursors to HULIS. Structural characteristics of atmospheric HULIS were compared to terrestrial humic and fulvic acids and revealed striking similarities in chemical structure, with the exception of organosulfates which were unique to atmospheric HULIS.